Pre-market – Monday 11-25-2013
"The most important single central fact about a free market is that no exchange takes place unless both parties benefit."
~ Milton Friedman ~
Dr. John L. Faessel
ON THE MARKET
Commentary and Insights
Quotes of the day
"Access to power must be confined to men who are not in love with it."
~ Plato ~
The Republic
***
The Neville Chamberlain "Peace for Our Time" Award goes to ….
Who else?
~ John F. Kerry ~
USA Secretary of State
"Peace for Our Time"
Munich Agreement
Chamberlain, convinced that Hitler's territorial demands were not unreasonable (and that Hitler was a "gentleman") Hitler's invaded Poland a year later. The WW2 death count was over 63 million.
***
ALERT
The Citigroup "Panic / Euphoria" Model moved well into the Euphoria Zone at a plus 0.52. Last week's post was in high Neutral at plus 0.42. These weeks post is the highest since January 2001. *
Just Breaking
Re the Iran nuclear deal: Saudi Arabia warns it will strike out on its own Link here
MARKET
Another positive week for the major stock markets, albeit it was on declining and below average volume. "Price" is also extended and is very close to the maximum distance above the 50-day moving average where pull-backs occur yet the McClellan Oscillator is in neutral at a plus 5 so the market is not overbought and more upside could be 'absorbed.' "Price" in the S&P 500 (SPX) remains well above the former resistance and now support of the top trendline of the channel that goes back to 2009.All that said the bullish / bearish sentiment overview is registering bubbles and well above a simmer so we are now in the land of the lightheaded and giddy. A VIX at 12.26 also suggests that there is "no fear" in the market.
Discretion suggests that some $$ should be taken off the table as the market is priced to perfection. The debt ceiling is closing in and the Iran nuclear situation is smoldering on the front burner as they are very close to having nukes and I continue to believe that Israel, in concert with possibly the Saudi's, will act.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, last week promised "the Zionist regime is doomed to destruction." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeated a reference to his own red line by stating, "Israel will not allow Iran to develop a military nuclear capability." Netanyahu also stated that the interim Iranian nuclear pact is a "historic mistake."Also noteworthy is that the Israelis have been in secret trips to key foreign bases. Link here
Global growth is slowing
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD] ratcheted down growth estimates almost everywhere for the rest of this year. For the euro-zone nations: -0.4%; for "emerging" India it's down to 3%; South Korea: 2.7%.
As to the U.S., the OECD says growth for the rest of the year will fall back to 1.7%. That is about the average rate of U.S. economic growth for the entire Obama presidency.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 (SPX) closed Friday at 1804.76 - -
The prior Friday it was 1798.18
The 50-day moving average support is 1734
Short term 'Price' support is at 1799/ 1794 / 1777 /
The a bit further out 1762 / 1746 / 1740 / 1716 / 1646 and 1627
The 200-day moving average support is at 1644
The top trend line of the channel that goes back 2009 to at (SPX) 1758 is now support ('that' previous resistance was breached on October 22nd.)
Channel and trend line support of (November 2012) is at 1708
Then deep channel and trend line support of (October 2011) is at 1600
Then the deepest channel and trend line support of (March 2009) is at 1394
* This Week's Investor Sentiment
The Bullishness / Bearishness complex overview is scary high
(High BULLISH readings in the Investor Sentiment Readings usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.)
The Citigroup "Panic / Euphoria" Model moved well into the Euphoria Zone at a plus 0.52. Last week's post was in high Neutral at plus 0.42. These weeks post is the highest since January 2001. In early 2000 it ticked its all-time high at plus 0.72.
At the end of June, 2011 it ticked cycle lows of minus0.31 in the Panic mode.
The American Association of Individual Investors [AAII]Investor Sentiment Survey of BULLISHNESS slid to 34.4% from 39.2% the prior week. The week before that it was 45.5%.
The "Bullish" survey posted recent highs of 52.3% 9-months ago. It posted cycle lows of 22.2% on 7/23/2012 the lowest percentile since August 2010. Long-Term Average: Bullish: 39.0%
The American Association of Individual Investors [AAII] Investor Survey of BEARISHNESS added a few percentile to 29.5 from last week's 27.5% the week before that it was 21.8 -- 6- weeks ago it registered the lowest read since 1/12/2012 at 17.6%. Cycle highs of Bearishness of 54.5% were posted 15 weeks ago. Long-Term Average: Bearish: 30.5%
Consensus Index BULLISH was up to 75% from last week's posting of 72%. New Cycle highs in Bullishness of 77% were posted 6-months ago matching the top tick of 77% on 10/11/2007.
The Market Vane (Market Letter Survey) up a percentile to 66% from last week's 65%. In October 2007 it topped at 70% bullish.
A "Right on" Quote re the Filibuster
"This [the "nuclear option" killing the filibuster move upending 225 years of precedent] is a tacit admission that the president's second-term agenda is kaput and suggests that the few broken shards of cooperation that still remained in Congress will be pulverized." ~ Chris Stirewalt ~
My comment – Obama now understands that he is 100% "dead meat" in congress due to his being "found out" so why not flood the assorted benches throughout the USA with progressive judges. Groan…
But Hark:
From GEORGE WILL: What this means is if in the spring of 2017 there is a Republican president, which there could be, the Republicans still hold the House and they have 51 Senators, they can repeal Obamacare with 51 votes. And I'm not sure the people who did this today have thought this through. Link here
ObamaCare approval at 31% - CBS poll
Support for the president and his law is in free fall, with approval for ObamaCare at 31% (down 12 points in a month) and the president's job approval at 37% (down nine points since October) in a Nov. 18 CBS poll. The Democrats in Congress who voted for it could well experience something very similar next November.
A CBS poll indicates that only 7% of the American public wants ObamaCare "kept in place." A full 93% either believe that changes are needed to the law (48%) or want a full repeal (43%). This pits President Obama and Democrat lawmakers -- who thus far have refused to make any meaningful changes -- against 93% of the American people and 72% of Democrats.
And More Fallout from ObamaCare
The International Franchise Association and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce have studied the impact and say the president's health care law has resulted in higher costs and fewer full-time positions. A survey showed 31% of franchise businesses, and 12% of non-franchise businesses, have already reduced worker hours. It also showed 27% of franchise businesses, and 12% of non-franchise businesses, have replaced full-time workers with part-time employees.
Truth re the number of uninsured
According to the Congressional Budget Office [CBO] - of the "46 million uninsured" (hokum) 71% were without insurance for a year or less. Only about 16% were uninsured for two or more years. More than 9 million of those counted among the uninsured were not citizens. Another 6 million who said they were without insurance actually were signed up with Medicaid, and 4 million more were eligible for Medicaid but had failed to enroll.
Top 5 High Dividend Companies To Watch For 2015
The true number of uninsured individuals was closer to 15 million (5 million of whom were young, single adults). The CBO estimates that even if Obamacare were fully implemented and worked smoothly, the number of uninsured Americans in 2023 would be, drumroll please, 30 million. Link here
Isolated bits of relevance
"Obama is like someone who burns down your house. Then shows up with an empty water bucket. Then lectures you about how defective the house was."
~ Congressman Steve Scalise ~
[Then] "He gives you permission to reoccupy your house — if you can get someone to rebuild it — but for only another year."
George Will ~
Re Education
Just 18% of voters think U.S. public schools provide a world-class education, down from 26% two years ago. here
For Posterity
Hear the moment when the Boston Symphony Orchestra announced JFK's assassination to a shocked audience – Conductor Erich Leinsdorf spoke; "The president of the United States has been the victim of an assassination." - "We will now play the Funeral March from Beethoven's 3rd Symphony,"
Listen here
Friday's key indicators and metrics:
Cycle highs or lows are in red
·McClellan Oscillator is in Neutral at plus 5
·3-month $ LIBOR hangs at new lows of 0.23660%
·CBOE Put / Call Volume Ratio – 0.94
·VIX – 12.26
·Swiss Franc – 1.1025
·US Dollar Index – 80.74
·Euro – 1.34551
·Japanese Yen – 0.9871 (6-months lows)
·Canadian Dollar – 0.9491
·Aussie Dollar –0.9153
·Crude oil (NYMEX) 94.84
·Brent crude 109.00
·Copper – 3.2140
·Gold (COMEX) – 1244.1
·Natural Gas (Globex) – 3.768
·The Treasury 5-year yield – 1.34%
·The Treasury 10-year yield – 2.74% - cycle high was on 9/10/2013 at 2.98%
·The 30-year Treasury – 3.83% - cycle high was on August 22nd at 3.93%
·Silver (COMEX) – 19.862
·Platinum 1382.7
·Palladium 714.05
·Lumber (CME) – 363.50
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